Somebody has already told you a number. A colleague said ten per cent. A forum said twenty. Your mum’s friend said everything goes for silly money. Here is what the published record actually shows for 2026, and why a single figure is wrong for most of Scotland most of the time.
There is no national answer to this question. The percentages people quote come from the 2021–22 boom, or from measuring against the advertised price rather than against the valuation. What the published figures show instead is a spread: whole areas selling under their Home Report valuations while others run a few points above. Two things decide your own number — the pattern where you are buying, and the pounds above valuation you would have to find in cash. We research the first for the property you’re bidding on, for £15.
The published answer, by area
ESPC publishes a matched series for Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders: what homes sold for, set against the Home Report valuations those same homes carried. It is the closest thing Scotland has to a public answer, and it covers rather less of the country than most buyers assume. Where a matched series does not exist, this table says so instead of estimating.
| Area | % of Home Report | What the published data shows | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh EH12 | 103.2% | Among the strongest pockets in the capital in early 2026 | ESPC, Q1 2026 |
| West Fife & Kinross (houses) | 102.9% | Dunfermline and the commuter belt across the bridge | ESPC, Feb–Apr 2026 |
| Kelso | 102.5% | Reported at around this level, ahead of the Borders region around it | ESPC, 2026 |
| Edinburgh (city) | 101.5% | Median 26 days to sell | ESPC, Feb–Apr 2026 |
| ESPC region overall | 101.2% | Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders combined | ESPC, Feb–Apr 2026 |
| Midlothian | 100.2% | But only 67.2% of homes reached their valuation at all | ESPC, Feb–Apr 2026 |
| Scottish Borders | 100% | The region as a whole sold at valuation, not above it | ESPC, Feb–Apr 2026 |
| East Fife | 98.5% | Typically selling below valuation | ESPC, Feb–Apr 2026 |
| West Lothian (flats) | 95.0% | Well below valuation, and down 7.3 points on the year | ESPC, Feb–Apr 2026 |
| Aberdeen (family suburbs) | no series | Analysis has shown family homes selling 1.6–2.5% below valuation | ASPC analysis, 2024–25 |
| Glasgow | no series | No official matched sold-versus-valuation series has existed since GSPC closed in 2018. Winning offers are reported at roughly 5–15% over the advertised price. See the Glasgow guide | Published market guidance, 2026 |
Every figure above is quoted from a publicly published report, on the date shown. Read the figure column downwards and the spread does the arguing: in the same country, in the same season, the honest answer runs from a few points under valuation to a few points over. Street-level results scatter considerably wider than these area averages. And note the measure — these are percentages of the valuation, not percentages over the advertised price, which is the confusion the next section is about and which our guide to offers over versus the Home Report valuation takes apart properly.
of Home Report valuation: what homes across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders achieved on average this spring. It is the headline answer to the question in the title, and it is an average of areas running from 95.0% to 103.2%.
Where the folklore percentages came from
Two separate things manufactured the ten-to-twenty-per-cent rule, and both of them are traceable.
The first is timing. A great deal of the advice still circulating was written during the 2021–22 boom, when stock was scarce, mortgage rates were near their floor and premiums over valuation genuinely did run into double figures. Spring 2026 is a different market: 17.3% of sales across the ESPC region went to a competitive closing date, a smaller share than a year earlier, and more than a quarter of homes sold below their Home Report valuation (ESPC published House Price Report, Feb–Apr 2026).
The second is a measurement error, and it is the one that does the damage. Ask what a home “went over by” and the answer can mean either of two entirely different things:
- Per cent over the advertised offers-over price. That figure is chosen by the seller’s agent for marketing effect and is usually set below the valuation deliberately, so a dramatic-sounding percentage over it is often an ordinary result.
- Per cent of the Home Report valuation. The surveyor’s independent figure, the one your lender lends against, and the measure ESPC actually publishes.
One sale produces both numbers and they tell opposite stories about the same money. Forum posts almost always quote the first; mortgage offers run entirely on the second. Mixing them up is how buyers end up either frightened into bidding beyond their cash or priced out of homes they could comfortably have afforded, and it is why our reports show the two measures separately rather than blending them into one comforting percentage.
The number that actually matters: your cash over the valuation
Your lender sizes the mortgage on the Home Report valuation, not on your bid. Every pound you offer above that valuation is a pound of your own cash, stacked on top of the deposit you had already planned for. Which is why a percentage is the wrong unit to think in at all: three per cent over valuation on a first flat and three per cent over on a family house are not remotely the same amount of money to find, and the second one may be the difference between proceeding and withdrawing.
So the question worth answering before you go anywhere near a closing date is not “what percentage?” It is this:
How many pounds above the valuation am I willing and able to find in cash, and does the local evidence justify it? Work it out while you are calm, from the recent results of comparable homes nearby, before any deadline is announced. Answered in that order it becomes a ceiling. Answered on the morning of a closing date it becomes a guess.
The evidence half of that question is the part nobody hands you. The area figure below is free, published and sourced, and it is where to start.
Homes in Edinburgh achieved on average 101.5% of Home Report valuation
Median 26 days to sell. Across the wider ESPC region, 72.8% of homes sold at or above their Home Report valuation and 17.3% went to a closing date.
Bidding on a specific property?
Every percentage on this page is an average of many sales, and no single home is an average. The narrow version of the question is the one that actually has an answer: what homes like yours, on streets like yours, achieved against their Home Report valuations.
Get your report — £15 →- Delivered by email within 48 hours.
- Full refund if it is not useful.
A sane process for landing on your number
- Read the Home Report first. The valuation, the condition ratings and the report date all matter — a report more than about twelve weeks old may need refreshing before your lender will work from it.
- Gather the local evidence. What did comparable homes nearby sell for, against both their advertised prices and their valuations, over the last six to twelve months? All of it is public: sold prices come from Registers of Scotland records, and listing history is traceable where the agent has left it visible. It is also exactly what we research for £15.
- Read the competition. Is this property heading for a closing date? How many similar homes are on the market nearby right now? Scarcity drives premiums, not the asking price. A note of interest lodged through your solicitor is what keeps you informed while you find out.
- Set your ceiling in pounds over the valuation, from that evidence and from what you can actually reach in cash. Write it down before the deadline is announced.
- Offer a specific, unrounded figure up to that ceiling and never past it. A calculated-looking number also clears the crowd who all stop at the same tidy figure.
None of those five steps requires a percentage rule, and that is deliberate: the moment you carry a national percentage into a local market you have stopped reading the evidence in front of you.
When the answer is “don’t offer over at all”
In East Fife, across much of Aberdeen, and for West Lothian flats, the published record says typical sales complete below valuation. Those are not marginal corners of the market — they are whole local authority areas where the phrase on the listing and the money that changes hands routinely disagree.
The same applies property by property. If the home you are watching has been listed for weeks with no closing date in prospect, “offers over” is describing an aspiration rather than an instruction. Offers at, and under, the advertised figure are made and accepted every week in Scotland, and the published split is why.
of homes across the ESPC region sold at or above their Home Report valuation this spring. Which means more than a quarter of them did not, in the best-documented market in the country.
Where your own area sits inside that split is the first thing worth knowing, and the free check above will tell you. What it cannot tell you is how the specific property behaves against the specific street, which is the research we sell. The wider picture, including how the offers-over figure gets chosen in the first place, is in the complete offers-over guide.
Frequently asked questions
How much over the Home Report valuation do Scottish homes sell for?
The published average across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders was 101.2% of Home Report valuation in spring 2026 — but the spread by area runs from 95% (West Lothian flats) to over 103% (EH12, West Fife houses). There is no single correct percentage; the local pattern is what matters.
Do I always need to offer over the Home Report valuation?
No. More than a quarter of homes across the ESPC region sold below their Home Report valuation in spring 2026, and whole areas — East Fife, parts of Aberdeen — typically sell under valuation. Offering over is only rational where the local evidence shows competition demands it.
Why does the amount over the valuation matter for my mortgage?
Lenders lend against the Home Report valuation, not your bid. Every pound you offer above the valuation must come from your own cash on top of your deposit — so the over-valuation amount, in pounds, is the single most important number to decide before bidding.